Introduction
In nature, the success and survival of a species is determined by
its ability to adapt to changes in its environment. This includes competition
from other species in the same niche. The species that does not change does not
survive. During the middle of this decade, new competitors were introduced to
the RPG niche. At the same time, the environment of publishing was changing. In
the wild, these events would be called selection pressures. They necessitate
change.
As members of the RPG market, we must help guide our hobby into
adaptation. But what new form should we take? What changes need to be made? The
answer depends on what our competition looks like and what advantages we can
take from the new environment.
The Competition
Though sales are already starting to recover, the RPG industry
took a big hit to the groin in the mid-nineties. For an already small-money
market, this was nearly devastating. (Fortunately, a lot of high-quality games
emerged from that dry spell, but that’s a topic for another day.) There are no
clear answers to why sales dropped so drastically, but two culprits are commonly
singled out:
Collectable Card Games (CCGs) - Following in “Magic’s”
footsteps, these games hit the same niche market as RPGs, and they hit it hard.
There is some contention over whether CCGs pulled people into the hobby or
distracted them from RPGs. Personally, I think it did a little of both, with the
harm done pretty much negating the good.
The real damage was done by the simple fact that CCG fans dumped a
lot of money into them. Most, if not all, of those dollars may have otherwise
gone into RPGs. Potential role-players were faced with the choice of spending
their hard-earned twenty bucks on either an RPG supplement (that they would
need, say 3 other people and lots of free time to play) or couple booster packs
of cards (which they would need only 1 other person and 15-30 minutes to
play).
You make the call.
Computer Role-Playing Games (CRPGs) - In my opinion, these
games are the real competitor. They take people who may otherwise be drawn to
RPGs (imaginative people who enjoy sci-fi and fantasy) and distract them with
immediate, full-sensory experiences. These are the, perhaps, less creative
people who would rather play than GM. CRPGs supply them with the same challenges
as RPGs (combat, NPC interaction, abstract puzzles) without having to find a GM
and, coordinate schedules with other players, learn an entire book’s worth of
game mechanics, etc, etc, etc.
However, both CRPGs and CCGs are sorely lacking in two of the
aspects of RPGs: Socialization and Creative Expression. Admittedly, CCGs require
a little social interaction, and network games can provide the same. However,
neither involves the same group dynamics as sitting down with a bunch of friends
and role-playing face to face. This goes beyond simple socialization, it creates
community. (Remember that term, as I’ll be coming back to it later.)
The creative aspect of RPGs is what the competition can’t touch.
They create the world, the cards, the weapons, the characters, and you just
accept what you’re given. On occasion, companies might accept feedback and
suggestions, but the actual development is still done behind closed doors. Yet,
who hasn’t looked at these games and thought, “Ya know, I could do this so much
better!” Even if we absolutely love the game, each of us has our own spin we’d
like to put on it. RPGs not only encourage players and GMs to create their own
material, they require it! Players create characters, GM create plots, NPCs, and
even entire game worlds. Even when using supplements and ready-made adventures,
some creative license must always be taken. Things must be improvised on the
spot.
Short of writing fiction, I can’t think of anything that offers
more chances for creative expression.
RPGs on the Internet
So, those are our competing species, complete with their relative
strengths and weakness. Now, we have to identify the environment we’ll be
competing in. As with most things in the last few years, I’ll be focusing on the
emerging landscapes of the Internet. Even amidst the industry’s economic
downturn, the Internet hosted a growing community of role-players. Particularly
in our fight against CRPGs, the Internet will be an important venue.
Looking around the Gaming Outpost, I see a far higher percentage
of “GM-types” than I see at my local gaming club. I can only assume that, like
aspiring authors, they are attracted to the Internet by the easy access to
exposure. e-Publishing a far easier than traditional magazine or book
publishing. As someone once said, the Internet allows us to be ignored by more
people than ever before.
As a consequence, there is a fast-growing market of free and
self-published RPGs to be found online. Some of these are just knockoffs of
traditionally published games, but most are highly original works. They find
innovative solutions to common RPG flaws, bring all-new worlds and concepts to
gaming, and otherwise advance the hobby as a whole.
Finally, the loci for most of this innovation seems to be mailing
lists or discussion boards. Most sites with at least one game have, or point to,
a place where fans can talk about it online. Often, the designers participate in
these discussion, too, creating a direct link from customer to creator.
What does this all mean for the industry? It means that, on the
Internet, there still exists significant demand for the social interaction and
creative freedom of traditional RPGs. These are survival advantages that the
competition does not possess. Surviving, even thriving, in our new environment
depends on our ability to leverage those advantages to their fullest effect.
The Next Evolution
Now we get to the meat of the issue: What will RPGs be like in the
next 5-10 years? Integrating business with the Internet is a major goal for most
industries, and role-playing will be no exception. However, RPGs stand to reap
even greater rewards, for the reasons given above. They have unique
characteristics that compliment many aspect of online business.
New Emphasis on Creativity
The growing number and impact of self-published RPGs will create a
new emphasis on original settings and creative design. (This trend will be
helped along by the profusion of rules systems already available on paper and
online; as it becomes less possible to break ground with rules, it will become
necessary to break ground with settings.) We’re already seeing this in many of
the “indie” games on the web.
Personally, I can’t help but see this as a Good Thing.
Virtual Communities
To satisfy our need for social interaction, the prevalence of
virtual communities (established via mailing lists and discussion boards) will
continue to increase. At the same time, companies will open their doors further
and further to feedback from their fans. (This is simply a good business
strategy. It is far cheaper to catch a bad game before publication than to
revise it after.)
In addition, the power of the Internet to bridge vast distances
will allow the gaming community to grow as a whole. No longer will finding a
gaming group be a matter of scouring your local town for recruits. Instead,
like-minded people from around the world will be able to gather around their
favorite game sites and online magazines for news and discussion. As online
communication technology advances, these forums will become more and more
similar to meeting in person.
At the least, this will consolidate a small niche market scattered
too thinly across a number of countries and continents. At best, it could lead
to a revival of the hobby and an explosion of new ideas that draw in even more
potential gamers.
Increased Customer Participation
Combining these two factors, we will see steady blurring of the
line between player and designer. It is a very short step from monitoring
discussion boards to accepting feedback officially, and an equally short step
from accepting feedback to accepting submissions for supplements, game fiction,
etc. This is the ultimate expression of a creative, social gaming community.
Such a strategy makes sense from multiple angles. First, as
mentioned above, accepting feedback before publication is more economical.
Beyond that, allowing fans to participate directly in the development of a game
line fosters stronger brand loyalty; who wouldn’t sink a few dollars extra into
a game they had personally contributed to? Fans will also feel more invested,
both in terms of time and ego, in the success of that game and its publisher.
Everyone wins.
Case Studies
Unfortunately, I haven’t really gone out on any limbs with these
“predictions.” Much of what I’ve just talked about is already happening. The
real question is: Will it succeed? Only time will tell. The curious might want
to keep an eye on few pioneers…
Deep 7
This interesting group has already made the move away from
traditional publishing to e-publishing. All of their games are available via
pay-per-download from their website. Beyond that, they also host a message board
(aka, “virtual pub”) and accept submission ideas from the public. One of the
biggest obstacles many people cite for online RPG companies is simply getting
people to download and print their own stuff. Deep 7 is on their way to finding
out.
Dominion Games (
These folks are already blurring the lines between player and
designer. Their rules system is viewable online and free to all, as is their
first game setting. Both of these will be continuously updated, creating a
“living RPG.” Web forms encourage fans to send in their “bugs,” comments, and
submissions for future inclusion. This is fan participation a step above and
beyond.
ImEG
My company, Immersive Entertainment Group, was formed a few months
ago specifically to pursue these new kinds of RPGs. Our goal is to allow fans to
contribute directly to a single world, much like what Dominion Games is doing,
but taken to a greater degree. We will combine fan fiction, RPG products, and an
online, multi-player game to develop worlds in real-time.
For more information, take a look at our inspiration,
solo endeavor, The Erebus
Project.
Conclusion
Evolution is a chaotic and mysterious thing, even in the world of
hobby gaming. The above is simply my analysis of the present and expectations
for the future. At the very least, I hope it got you thinking. Role-Playing is
unlike other industries in that it relies on a great degree of independent
creativity from its players. We can, and should, use that creativity to help
make sure our hobby continues to thrive.