Natural Selection: The Future of RPGs

Introduction

In nature, the success and survival of a species is determined by its ability to adapt to changes in its environment. This includes competition from other species in the same niche. The species that does not change does not survive. During the middle of this decade, new competitors were introduced to the RPG niche. At the same time, the environment of publishing was changing. In the wild, these events would be called selection pressures. They necessitate change.

As members of the RPG market, we must help guide our hobby into adaptation. But what new form should we take? What changes need to be made? The answer depends on what our competition looks like and what advantages we can take from the new environment.

The Competition

Though sales are already starting to recover, the RPG industry took a big hit to the groin in the mid-nineties. For an already small-money market, this was nearly devastating. (Fortunately, a lot of high-quality games emerged from that dry spell, but that's a topic for another day.) There are no clear answers to why sales dropped so drastically, but two culprits are commonly singled out:

Collectable Card Games (CCGs) - Following in "Magic's" footsteps, these games hit the same niche market as RPGs, and they hit it hard. There is some contention over whether CCGs pulled people into the hobby or distracted them from RPGs. Personally, I think it did a little of both, with the harm done pretty much negating the good.

The real damage was done by the simple fact that CCG fans dumped a lot of money into them. Most, if not all, of those dollars may have otherwise gone into RPGs. Potential role-players were faced with the choice of spending their hard-earned twenty bucks on either an RPG supplement (that they would need, say 3 other people and lots of free time to play) or couple booster packs of cards (which they would need only 1 other person and 15-30 minutes to play).

You make the call.

Computer Role-Playing Games (CRPGs) - In my opinion, these games are the real competitor. They take people who may otherwise be drawn to RPGs (imaginative people who enjoy sci-fi and fantasy) and distract them with immediate, full-sensory experiences. These are the, perhaps, less creative people who would rather play than GM. CRPGs supply them with the same challenges as RPGs (combat, NPC interaction, abstract puzzles) without having to find a GM and, coordinate schedules with other players, learn an entire book's worth of game mechanics, etc, etc, etc.

However, both CRPGs and CCGs are sorely lacking in two of the aspects of RPGs: Socialization and Creative Expression. Admittedly, CCGs require a little social interaction, and network games can provide the same. However, neither involves the same group dynamics as sitting down with a bunch of friends and role-playing face to face. This goes beyond simple socialization, it creates community. (Remember that term, as I'll be coming back to it later.)

The creative aspect of RPGs is what the competition can't touch. They create the world, the cards, the weapons, the characters, and you just accept what you're given. On occasion, companies might accept feedback and suggestions, but the actual development is still done behind closed doors. Yet, who hasn't looked at these games and thought, "Ya know, I could do this so much better!" Even if we absolutely love the game, each of us has our own spin we'd like to put on it. RPGs not only encourage players and GMs to create their own material, they require it! Players create characters, GM create plots, NPCs, and even entire game worlds. Even when using supplements and ready-made adventures, some creative license must always be taken. Things must be improvised on the spot.

Short of writing fiction, I can't think of anything that offers more chances for creative expression.

RPGs on the Internet

So, those are our competing species, complete with their relative strengths and weakness. Now, we have to identify the environment we'll be competing in. As with most things in the last few years, I'll be focusing on the emerging landscapes of the Internet. Even amidst the industry's economic downturn, the Internet hosted a growing community of role-players. Particularly in our fight against CRPGs, the Internet will be an important venue.

Looking around the Gaming Outpost, I see a far higher percentage of "GM-types" than I see at my local gaming club. I can only assume that, like aspiring authors, they are attracted to the Internet by the easy access to exposure. e-Publishing a far easier than traditional magazine or book publishing. As someone once said, the Internet allows us to be ignored by more people than ever before.

As a consequence, there is a fast-growing market of free and self-published RPGs to be found online. Some of these are just knockoffs of traditionally published games, but most are highly original works. They find innovative solutions to common RPG flaws, bring all-new worlds and concepts to gaming, and otherwise advance the hobby as a whole.

Finally, the loci for most of this innovation seems to be mailing lists or discussion boards. Most sites with at least one game have, or point to, a place where fans can talk about it online. Often, the designers participate in these discussion, too, creating a direct link from customer to creator.

What does this all mean for the industry? It means that, on the Internet, there still exists significant demand for the social interaction and creative freedom of traditional RPGs. These are survival advantages that the competition does not possess. Surviving, even thriving, in our new environment depends on our ability to leverage those advantages to their fullest effect.

The Next Evolution

Now we get to the meat of the issue: What will RPGs be like in the next 5-10 years? Integrating business with the Internet is a major goal for most industries, and role-playing will be no exception. However, RPGs stand to reap even greater rewards, for the reasons given above. They have unique characteristics that compliment many aspect of online business.

New Emphasis on Creativity

The growing number and impact of self-published RPGs will create a new emphasis on original settings and creative design. (This trend will be helped along by the profusion of rules systems already available on paper and online; as it becomes less possible to break ground with rules, it will become necessary to break ground with settings.) We're already seeing this in many of the "indie" games on the web.

Personally, I can't help but see this as a Good Thing.

Virtual Communities

To satisfy our need for social interaction, the prevalence of virtual communities (established via mailing lists and discussion boards) will continue to increase. At the same time, companies will open their doors further and further to feedback from their fans. (This is simply a good business strategy. It is far cheaper to catch a bad game before publication than to revise it after.)

In addition, the power of the Internet to bridge vast distances will allow the gaming community to grow as a whole. No longer will finding a gaming group be a matter of scouring your local town for recruits. Instead, like-minded people from around the world will be able to gather around their favorite game sites and online magazines for news and discussion. As online communication technology advances, these forums will become more and more similar to meeting in person.

At the least, this will consolidate a small niche market scattered too thinly across a number of countries and continents. At best, it could lead to a revival of the hobby and an explosion of new ideas that draw in even more potential gamers.

Increased Customer Participation

Combining these two factors, we will see steady blurring of the line between player and designer. It is a very short step from monitoring discussion boards to accepting feedback officially, and an equally short step from accepting feedback to accepting submissions for supplements, game fiction, etc. This is the ultimate expression of a creative, social gaming community.

Such a strategy makes sense from multiple angles. First, as mentioned above, accepting feedback before publication is more economical. Beyond that, allowing fans to participate directly in the development of a game line fosters stronger brand loyalty; who wouldn't sink a few dollars extra into a game they had personally contributed to? Fans will also feel more invested, both in terms of time and ego, in the success of that game and its publisher. Everyone wins.

Case Studies

Unfortunately, I haven't really gone out on any limbs with these "predictions." Much of what I've just talked about is already happening. The real question is: Will it succeed? Only time will tell. The curious might want to keep an eye on few pioneers...

Deep 7 (http://www.deep7.com)

This interesting group has already made the move away from traditional publishing to e-publishing. All of their games are available via pay-per-download from their website. Beyond that, they also host a message board (aka, "virtual pub") and accept submission ideas from the public. One of the biggest obstacles many people cite for online RPG companies is simply getting people to download and print their own stuff. Deep 7 is on their way to finding out.

Dominion Games (http://www.dominiongames.com)

These folks are already blurring the lines between player and designer. Their rules system is viewable online and free to all, as is their first game setting. Both of these will be continuously updated, creating a "living RPG." Web forms encourage fans to send in their "bugs," comments, and submissions for future inclusion. This is fan participation a step above and beyond.

ImEG

My company, Immersive Entertainment Group, was formed a few months ago specifically to pursue these new kinds of RPGs. Our goal is to allow fans to contribute directly to a single world, much like what Dominion Games is doing, but taken to a greater degree. We will combine fan fiction, RPG products, and an online, multi-player game to develop worlds in real-time.

For more information, take a look at our inspiration, The Starshield Web Project, or our first solo endeavor, The Erebus Project.

Conclusion

Evolution is a chaotic and mysterious thing, even in the world of hobby gaming. The above is simply my analysis of the present and expectations for the future. At the very least, I hope it got you thinking. Role-Playing is unlike other industries in that it relies on a great degree of independent creativity from its players. We can, and should, use that creativity to help make sure our hobby continues to thrive.