Origins: The Only Game in Town?

As you read this, a large percentage of the game industry is in Columbus Ohio, preparing for the 2001 Origins gaming convention, which is scheduled to begin on Thursday, July 5th (actually, as I write this, it's more than a week away...but that's the magic of the internet for you).

So, I figured that I'd use this week's column to do one of those rants that folks seem to like from us game industry types with an online presence. My topic? The fact that within a few short years, Origins is going to be the ONLY premiere convention for this industry, and it deserves to be supported as such, starting now.

First of all, the standard disclaimer: I'm not privy to any inside information from either GAMA or Hasbro, nor is my opinion based on any such information. It is, however, based on what is commonly referred to as "the writing on the wall" - a combination of experience, past history and general trends that are, in my opinion, evident.

My theory: Within five short years, GenCon will either be cancelled, or effectively cancelled by Hasbro.

Someday soon, some suit at Hasbro is going to figure out that the costs and headaches of running GenCon aren't worth it....plus, given the fact that the majority of their competition (such as it is) in this industry uses the show to launch new product, Hasbro is essentially subsidizing the competition by running a venue that showcases their product.

The strategy that makes the most sense, business-wise, is to either cancel the show, or, more likely, bar competing publishers from exhibiting at the show (much in the same way Dragon Magazine bars competing publishers from advertising within its pages), while still remaining open to non-competing entities (computer game manufacturers, etc...just like Dragon's advertising policy). Let's face it-the average gamer wouldn't give a toss, as long as events were scheduled and gaming was going on. The only affect would be the loss of a major marketing and revenue source to smaller publishers...a loss, which, in the most extreme cases, could result in the folding of the smallest of those companies.

The situation is markedly similar to the events that surrounded Marvel comics in the early 1990s. The suits heading up Marvel Entertainment Group decided that their participating in the distribution system was subsidizing those distributors, and hence subsidizing the sales of the competition. They withdrew from distribution, and tried self-distribution through Heroes World, which they owned. The result was the near total collapse of the comics industry. Major distributors folded, countless stores went under, and eventually, Marvel had to return to standard distribution, but did so in an industry that was practically gutted by their own actions. I live in the constant apprehension that Hasbro will engage in the same narrow-sighted stupidity.

Given the time-frame of most board-room decisions, I suspect that Hasbro will opt to move on the GenCon question, and perhaps the whole RPG question, within the next 5 years (and probably sooner). My gut instinct tells me that they will most likely switch the convention over to an all-WotC show, perhaps with associated exhibitors (licensed video games, etc.) first. Then, after a couple of years of reduced profit from such a show, they'll cancel the whole thing outright (assuming, of course, that Hasbro is going to bother to continue to participate in our little pond after all).

The solution? Well, if they screw with distribution, that's a whole 'nother matter. But as to the convention question, there are options. As some of you may have heard, as of 2002, GAMA (the Game Manufacturers Association) will be in sole control of the Origins convention. It is my belief that manufacturers, freelancers and, most importantly, gamers, should start shifting their focus from GenCon to Origins, to lessen the impact of the stranglehold that Hasbro has on the wellbeing of this industry.

To gamers: Does it really make THAT much of a difference to move your vacation from August to July? From Milwaulkee (or Indianapolis after 2002) to Columbus? Do you want to support the efforts of the manufacturers who love this industry, or just continue to feed the coffers of a corporate squatter, who will most likely move on when they no longer see profits they consider to be worthy?

To manufacturers: alter your schedules. Make your big launches at Origins. Those launches will attract gamers...plus, it also gives you an additional month of summer sales that releasing at GenCon doesn't. Schedule events for Origins...do what you can to drive up attendance. When the corporate axe falls on GenCon, you'll be happy that you won't have to scramble to cover the loss.

Something to think about, anyway. This week's recommendations: I'm reading American Gods by Neil Gaiman, and I'm listening to Amnesiac by Radiohead.

See ya in 7.